Selections by Ellis Starr for Santa AnitaSunday 03/15/15

Mission Statement:
To help you be a better handicapper and bettor with uncommon selections and analysis.

Motto:
"Friends don't let friends bet chalk."

 

Guide to using these selections and analysis: The names listed in BOLD are the horses I think have the highest probability to win. Next to each name are my minimum ‘fair odds’, a guide for making win bets. You can consider win bets at ‘fair odds’ or higher, starting with the top choice. If a horse is listed as a contender but below the minimum fair odds it can still be used in the exacta and other wagers. The second best contender to win isn't necessarily the best horse to run second so even though horses are ranked in order that doesn't mean they will (or won't) finish in that order. When I feel an exacta is warranted I specifically say so.

 

Guide to Ratings:

  1. Predictable race that may not offer opportunity for profit, or unpredictable race with profit opportunity if the odds are high.
  2. Average race in terms of profit opportunity depending on the potential returns and odds on ‘win contenders’.
  3. Exceptional race for profit opportunity. Whether any horse in the race present exceptional profit opportunity depends on the odds and potential payoffs. These races usually have vulnerable favorites, high odds ‘win contenders’, or both.

 

Get my detailed selections & analysis at trackmaster.com, equibase.com & most betting (ADW) sites


Always Check Program Numbers

Race #1 - Rating = 2

#2 Lolo El Canonero - Fair odds 7/2

#6 Unusual Lover - Fair odds 4/1

 


The bad news is that the opener is a non-winners of 2 lifetime claimer so all of these have one win and many losses and aren’t that trustworthy. The good news is that stretching out Rambling House, Takeit To the Limit and Rusty Road should go too fast early to be around late, cutting down the contenders considerably. Lolo El Canonero should get first run on the tiring pacesetters and improve off his 4th to 2nd rally (beaten a neck) last month over the track at the level at 7 furlongs. Unusual Lover rallied for 3rd against these one before last when returning from a 16 month layoff and would’ve improved but was tried on turf and against tougher off that effort and ran poorly. Back on dirt and at the right level he can run by many if not all of these late.



Race #2 - Rating = 3

#5 Congrats Seattle - Fair odds 2/1

#4 Tiz Jolie - Fair odds 2/1

 


Congrats Seattle gets a dream trip with Two Six Wins, Signature Cat and possibly Bluegrass Sight all battling for the early lead, enabling the gelding to run just as he did a month ago at this 7 furlong trip when rallying from 6th to win. Running first off the Diodoro claim but with Espinoza riding, and being the only horse in the field with a win at the trip he's very logical to win again. If not, Tiz Jolie gets it done repeating his last effort, on 2/14, versus similar at a mile when rallying from 3rd. The cut back a furlong helps his late kick and Trujillo is riding very hot right now, having booted home a $41 winner on Thursday as well.



Race #3 - Rating = 1

#4 Backstreet Lisa - Fair odds 5/2

#5 Chia Love - Fair odds 7/2

#1 Racing for Chasen - Fair odds 7/2

 


Backstreet Lisa may be a LONE FRONTRUNNER here in a fairly short field just as she was last October when breaking her maiden at this mile trip (but on turf). She showed too much early speed last out and tired but drops in class and has no speed inside of her so gets the rail in the first few yards and could prove hard to catch once again. Chia Love closed from 2nd to win last out over the track at the trip, Bejarano up for the 1st time and riding back, the filly with improving do so (as she'll need to going from maidens to winners) 2nd off the layoff. Racing for Chasen rallied from 3rd to win going away over the track at 7 furlongs 3 back one race after adding blinkers and although disappointing in two since has a shot here to save ground and pass a few at the least in the stretch.



Race #4 - Rating = 0

 


For multi-race wagers like the pick 3, use #3 Uptown Rhythem, #6 George's Main Man and #9 Market Order. Otherwise pass. With Next Right stuck on the rail, forcing this horse with early speed to go very fast, and with Preordained having the same style, they should both tire. Uptown Rhythem drops into a maiden claimer for the first time, George's Main Man does the same and Market Order debuts for a good trainer of first time starter winners (Kitchingman) and with a good outside post.



Race #5 - Rating = 2

#6 Approved to Fly - Fair odds 3/1

#5 Theralena - Fair odds 3/1

#7 Bilger's Surprise - Fair odds 3/1

 


If you want to go deeper, also consider #4 Seattle Salt, #1 Chaulk O Lattery and #9 Scuti de Patuti

 

Approved to Fly may be a debuting 5 year old but is still somewhat well regarded as she makes her debut in a straight maiden race, and it's no wonder considering her breeding. Five of her six siblings are winners, one of them a full brother who won 2nd out after finishing 2nd in its debut and was a stakes winner, while 2 of the other four won 2nd time out and another won in its debut. The race is weak for the level and she's bred to like the sod so why not, particularly with Trujillo riding. Theralena tried this downhill turf trip for the first time last out, on 2/15, beaten just 3 lengths in a field of 11. She's going to improve and may be a price again. Bilger's Surprise rallied for 3rd in that same race and with Nakatani riding back and likely to improve off that trip and a slow break could be right there at the wire today.



Race #6 - Rating = 2

#8 Erte - Fair odds 2/1

#3 Abets Abet - Fair odds 3/1

 


Exactas: 8 over 3,5,6,9,10 and (REVERSE) 3,5,6,9,10 with 8

#5 is Desert Thief, #6 is Clem Juice, #9 is Ritzy Tags and #10 is Seek Safe Harbor

Consider all six for multi-race wagers played.

 

Erte is the Key to exacta profit at the least in this situation, having won over the track one before last in her first dirt sprint start then following that up with a rallying 2nd place finish under identical conditions. She has a good stalking style which plays well if Desert Thief and Clem Juice go early as I expect they will, and with Trujillo up for the win 2 back and not up last out but getting back on all the cards seem to be in order. Abets Abet finished okay for 3rd last out, for 4th before that, and got up to win before that. Pereira rides her very well and should get her going late as the pacesetters fade, noting she's not usually bet (36/1 last out) and could run a lot better than her odds suggest perhaps like trainer Harrington's Swissarella, who won and paid $41 on Thursday.



Race #7 - Rating = 2

#8 Rosalind/#1 Testa Rossi - Fair odds 2/1 (uncoupled entry)

#5 Queen of the Sand - Fair odds 3/1

#4 Diversy Harbor - Fair odds 3/1

 


The field in this year's Santa Anita Stakes is strong BUT the shippers from other parts have an edge, particularly the ones from the strong Chad Brown barn, Rosalind and Testa Rossi, the former being the reason Joel Rosario is in town and foregoing an entire day of mounts at Gulfstream Park, the latter getting current leading rider Bejarano. Rosalind changed trainers sometime between her 8th place Valley View effort in a October and her big comeback last month in the Grade 3 Suwanee River Stakes when rallying to miss by a length. She got the last 1/8 of a mile at this 9 furlong trip in 11.8, real racehorse time, and Rosario was up then as well as today so she could be tough to beat particularly with a field high 110 Equibase Speed Figure to improve upon 2nd off the layoff. Testa Rossi was also coming back from a layoff in her most recent race, 1/31, in the Grade 3 Endeavour Stakes at Tampa. She rallied very nicely but was steadied and impeded late so was awarded the win after originally finishing 2nd. Her 105 figure effort bears improving upon as well so Brown's 1-2 punch will be tough to beat.

 

The local contingent is led by Queen of the Sand, runner-up in the Grade 1 Matriarch when last seen on 11/30. Smith has been up for all 3 of her U.S. wins and her very consistent four straight 107-108 figures suggest she's a formidable threat today. Diversy Harbor won the Grade 2 Buena Vista over the course at a mile and missed by a nose at this 9 furlong trip prior to that, Stevens up for both and in the saddle again. Her best effort yielded a 104 figure so she would need to improve about 1-2 lengths to be there at the finish with the other 3 contenders but being a newly turned 4 year old that's a strong possibility.



Race #8 - Rating = 1

#7 Honey Ride - Fair odds 2/1

#6 Enduring Erin - Fair odds 3/1

#3 Interject - Fair odds 3/1

 


Exacta: Box 3,6,7

 

Honey Ride returned from 3 months off last month and was just a bit short of being fit enough to win as she made the lead in the stretch and ended up 2nd, clearly so. Rosario was in town for that race and as he's here for the stakes sticks around to ride her here, making her the one to beat 2nd off the layoff. Enduring Erin won nicely at 9 furlongs on turf when last seen on 12/31 and has won on dirt as well, Desormeaux up for the last win and riding her back, so I expect her to be finishing strongly and be part of the exacta at the least. Interject won by 6 around two turns over the track one before last when breaking her maiden then could only manage 4th of 8 last out in the race Honey Ride finished 2nd in. Favored at even money that day she disappointed badly but maybe her 2nd start at the level might see improved form and Bejarano riding back is a good sign as well. 



Race #9 - Rating = 2

 

#5 Redheads Rule - Fair odds 8/5

#6 Showcase Winner - Fair odds 3/1

#7 Oui Cat Oui - Fair odds 5/1

#3 Avenge - Fair odds 5/1

#1 Boat Drinks - Fair odds 5/1

 


Trifecta: 5 over 6 over 1,3,7 and also

5 over 1,3,6,7 over 1,3,6,7

 

Redheads Rule tried the downhill turf course for the 1st time last out, on 1/9, her 2nd career start, and ran HUGE as she rallied from 7th to make the lead late and was in a 3 horse blanket finish at the end, missing by just 3/4 of a length. BOTH the winner and 2nd finishers came back to win and she should follow in their footsteps with Rosario staying around to ride the nightcap instead of catching an early flight back to Florida.

 

Showcase Winner showed a lot of early speed in a mile turf race last out when leading for the first 6 furlongs and could be a lot better at this shorter trip. Oui Cat Oui didn't show much in her debut last month, at the trip, but hopped in the air to lose all chance and trainer Casse's 2nd time starters perform at a very much above average rate (30% wins) so she gets a look, possibly at a price. Avenge finished 4th and Boat Drinks 2nd down the hill on 2/14 when the winner of Readheads Rule's 1/9 race (Entrechat) came back to win and both can improve as well off the experience.



Get my detailed selections & analysis at trackmaster.com, equibase.com & most betting (ADW) sites

 

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