The Turf Club Analysts


Aqueduct - Thursday, March 12, 2015

We are your pilots for today's interesting Thursday race card from Aqueduct. Leap on our backs as we take you through a day at the races, avoiding the pitfalls and missteps that will happen to those outside of our expedition. Some of our handicapping chums will be helping us along the way. Stay with us and hopefully we'll all have some extra cash to take home at the end of the day.

	Today's Money In The Vault Horse: Race 9 - #9 HIDDENITE (ML=4/1)
	Today's Live Longshot: Race 6 - #10 KITTY RIDE (ML=12/1)

Aqueduct - Race #1 - Post: 1:20pm - Claiming - 8.3 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $22,000 Class Rating: 70

Rating:

#5 BELLA FACHI (ML=3/1)
#1 GINGEE (ML=7/2)
#6 SHARPANDWITTY (ML=6/1)

BELLA FACHI - I undeniably see portentous signs for this mount right here. GINGEE - DiSanto has this mare signed up for the perfect affair. SHARPANDWITTY - This animal isn't the morning line choice, but finished ahead of today's M/L favorite in her last race (February 1st at Aqueduct).

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 STAGE NAME (ML=2/1), #2 KEEN ON GREEN (ML=6/1),

STAGE NAME - I can't play this habitual non-winner. Gets the task executed from time to time. Hasn't been close at all lately. Quite unimpressive speed figure last out at Aqueduct at 6 furlongs. Don't think this entrant will improve too much in today's event. KEEN ON GREEN - I can't play this confirmed non-winner. Gets the job fulfilled from time to time. This filly recorded a speed fig in her last race which probably isn't good enough in today's event.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Put your money on #5 BELLA FACHI on the nose if you can get odds of 3/1 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Pass
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [1,5,6] Total Cost: $6

Aqueduct - Race #2 - Post: 1:49pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $40,000 Class Rating: 86

Rating:

#4 WISE AWAKE (ML=6/1)
#6 KEEP BUSTIN (ML=3/1)
#8 BRIDGETTA (ML=5/2)
#2 BILEAPS AND BOUNDS (ML=5/1)

WISE AWAKE - It looks like Ortiz had to know this mare on February 8th when riding her for the initial time. Back aloft again today. Ortiz and Nevin partnered up are a punter's friend. I like to play horses that faced open company in their last race and drop into state bred races. This mare fits the bill. KEEP BUSTIN - Mare took a little vacation, but has been racing into shape. When this jockey and handler partner up you have to take a look. Carmouche and Levine have been fabulous together. This mare has higher odds on the morning line than the other entrant from the stable of Levine. Better beware this angle. 'Blinkers On' is a time-honored positive angle in handicapping the races. BRIDGETTA - Took a class drop last out at Aqueduct. Levine keeps her at the same level in this race. I think that's a good move. BILEAPS AND BOUNDS - I like this mount. Should be familiar with this class level since she ran against the same type last time out at Aqueduct. This jockey and trainer have a profitable ROI when they team up. Carrying 8 pounds less this race. Trainer has her in a good spot. Forgive the out of the money finish on the off track last time out. Under normal track conditions, has a shot in this event.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 RUN A DUBB DUBB (ML=4/1),

RUN A DUBB DUBB - This mare garnered a speed figure in her last event which likely isn't good enough today.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Put your money on #4 WISE AWAKE on the nose if you can get odds of 9/2 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Skip
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

Aqueduct - Race #3 - Post: 2:18pm - Claiming - 8.3 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $25,000 Class Rating: 78

Rating:

#2 C C'S PRIDE (ML=8/5)
#5 STAR OF THE FOREST (ML=2/1)

C C'S PRIDE - The rider and trainer combination have a profitable ROI when they combine forces. Don't throw this thoroughbred out due to her last race at Aqueduct where she finished fifth in the slop. Should improve this time around. STAR OF THE FOREST - Have to make this mare a serious competitor; she comes off a solid race on February 22nd. I like the case that this mare's last figure, 82, is tops in this bunch.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 TAYLOR JAGGER (ML=5/2),

TAYLOR JAGGER - I'm foreseeing a lackluster effort out of her in today's event.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#2 C C'S PRIDE to win at post-time odds of 9/5 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,5]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

Aqueduct - Race #4 - Post: 2:48pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $41,000 Class Rating: 74

Rating:

#5 EL GRILLO (ML=7/2)
#7 H MAN (ML=6/1)
#12 BACK SCATTER (ML=8/1)
#10 G R'S GIANT (ML=4/1)

EL GRILLO - Don't often see a profitable ROI like +530. This rider/conditioner tandem has done well together over the last 12 months. That 69 fig this colt earned in his last event tells me he's a key player this time. H MAN - Finished outside the top 3 last out at Aqueduct, but was within five lengths of the winner. Opening at 6/1 makes me think he's got a chance. Is ranked highest in earnings per start. A solid effort right here in this race can increase the lifetime total. BACK SCATTER - I like to play horses that faced open company in their last race and drop into state bred races. This gelding fits the bill. This gelding ran well in his last race but just couldn't beat the winner. Note that he was well clear of the show horse, and looks like a major contender in this field. This gelding is in good condition. Ended up second on Feb 13th. G R'S GIANT - Personally, I wouldn't worry about where he finished in his last race (fifth). Should improve right here, with some decent odds.

Vulnerable Contenders: #8 GHOST SHIP (ML=3/1), #2 LOUIE'S LUCK (ML=8/1),

GHOST SHIP - This horse hasn't been near the victor at the wire lately. Don't think this questionable contender will do much running in today's race. That last rating was pedestrian when compared with today's class figure. LOUIE'S LUCK - Will probably be far back with way too much to do in the homestretch.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Putting our cash on #7 H MAN to win. Have to have odds of at least 6/1 or better though
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [7,12]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

Aqueduct - Race #5 - Post: 3:18pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $31,000 Class Rating: 66

Rating:

#2 PARTY ON (ML=5/2)
#1 LEATHERHEAD LURIE (ML=10/1)
#5 FROSTY POP LARRY (ML=12/1)

PARTY ON - You always have to be on the prowl for money generating jock/trainer duos; we have one right here. Have to give this gelding a fair chance. Ran a nice outing in the last race within the last thirty days. This thoroughbred could be tough in this race, especially since Carmouche rode last out and now should be better acquainted with this one. This mount collects a lot of cash per start. I believe he will add to the lifetime bankroll right here. LEATHERHEAD LURIE - After the event aboard this horse on Feb 21st, the rider is going to 'know' the gelding much better. FROSTY POP LARRY - Jockey jumped on this colt's back for the first time on February 21st. Should be in tune with the horse even better this time around. Strong return on investment for this jockey and handler tandem. Colt looks like the lone speed here. He may turn the race into a procession. Handicappers took note of this colt in his maiden race at Aqueduct, sending him off at low odds. Look for a significant improvement right here.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 FIDELIUS (ML=3/1), #11 APRETTYSMOOTHGUY (ML=4/1),

FIDELIUS - Should take this one off your contenders list with the deficiency of early speed in that last route affair. 3/1 is not enough of a reward to take on most any horse that has run poorly in back to back outings. Doubtful for this entrant to do much in today's event. The long vacation is a troublesome sign. APRETTYSMOOTHGUY - 4/1 is too short of a price to take on this horse.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Have to go with #2 PARTY ON on the win end if we get at least 3/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,2,5]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [1,2,5] Total Cost: $6

Aqueduct - Race #6 - Post: 3:48pm - Allowance - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $57,000 Class Rating: 84

Rating:

#4 DARN THAT TRIP (ML=3/1)
#10 KITTY RIDE (ML=12/1)

DARN THAT TRIP - Nice return on investment for this jockey and conditioner twosome. This speedy sort should benefit from this race's shorter trip. Mare's last race was against tougher open company. She's in with easier 'state breds' today. The January 13th race at Parx Racing was at a class level of (90). Dropping down the class ladder drastically, so she should be in a good spot to win. KITTY RIDE - I expect a big performance from this filly today. She ran a huge race at big odds when she made her debut on Dec 14th. Using this jock/conditioner combination is a good decision. Rodriguez rode this racer for the initial time last out and comes right back in today's contest. Can't help but like the 2nd time addition of Lasix by the trainer today. What that tells me is Ryerson thinks she can win.

Vulnerable Contenders: #8 JAZZMINEGEM (ML=5/2), #12 MY WON LOVE (ML=5/1), #5 SAHARAN SERENADE (ML=6/1),

JAZZMINEGEM - The speed ratings continue to drop, 81/75/72. Not a positive indication. Didn't meet expectations when favored back to back. MY WON LOVE - The speed figures continue to drop, 88/73/70. Not a positive sign. Unlikely that the speed figure she garnered on February 14th will be good enough in this event. SAHARAN SERENADE - This filly registered a fig in her last event which probably isn't good enough today.

Top Hat

GUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - DARN THAT TRIP - Coming off her last race with the top speed figure of 84 at Parx Racing. She is the mare to beat today.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Have to go with #4 DARN THAT TRIP on the win end if we get at least 8/5 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [4,10]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	4 with 10 with [5,7,9] Total Cost: $3

Aqueduct - Race #7 - Post: 4:18pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $20,000 Class Rating: 99

Rating:

#6 DON TITO (ML=7/2)
#12 CAY TO POMEROY (ML=5/1)
#2 KITCHEN POLICE (ML=20/1)

DON TITO - This gelding is number one in earnings per start. Give the once over to this one in the paddock. CAY TO POMEROY - This jockey and trainer's animals have been generating a profitable return on investment. This horse ran out of the money at Aqueduct last out on a track listed as good. He should improve right here on a fast track. KITCHEN POLICE - This gelding is in fine condition. Ended up first on Feb 14th. Jara rode this horse for the initial time last race out and comes right back this time. Have to like the way Chatterpaul has raced this gelding back into shape off the layoff. Animal is well spotted in this sprint and I think he'll run well today. The improved speed figures over the last 3 races is solid. Chatterpaul drops him in this race fit and ready to go.

Vulnerable Contenders: #8 GLICKMAN (ML=2/1), #1A VOLASTIC (ML=8/1), #1 HOP SKIP AND AWAY (ML=8/1),

GLICKMAN - This probable favorite ran on December 15th and hasn't had a drill since then. No picnic to wager on any thoroughbred in a sprint clash at 2/1 when he hasn't shown any competitive efforts in sprints in the last sixty days. VOLASTIC - Didn't finish in the money on February 1st at Aqueduct. Followed it up with another less than stellar effort. Could be tough for this horse to beat this bunch off of that last fig. Doubtful to improve enough to run a figure anywhere near today's class rating, so put him on the vulnerable contenders list. HOP SKIP AND AWAY - Hasn't finished in the money in any short distance races recently. Not likely to see him doing it this time around either. I'd like to see better recent outings with M/L odds of 8/1.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#6 DON TITO is the play if we get odds of 3/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,6,12]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [2,6,12] Total Cost: $6

Aqueduct - Race #8 - Post: 4:48pm - Optional Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $69,000 Class Rating: 101

Rating:

#7 ATLANTIC'S SMILE (ML=9/5)
#2 MAKE THE MOMENT (ML=6/1)
#6 FRIVOLITY (ML=5/2)

ATLANTIC'S SMILE - This jockey/handler duo has been producing a very positive ROI, right at +33. I like when a race sets up this way. This mare has the lone pace to bury this field. I like that latest outing on February 14th at Aqueduct where she finished second. MAKE THE MOMENT - The morning line odds on this mare are higher than those of the other entrant from the shedrow of conditioner Baker. Often the longer-priced part of a 'split' entry wins. A campaigner coming back this quickly after a nice race is a good signal. FRIVOLITY - This jockey/trainer duo has been producing a very favorable ROI, right at +850. This horse likes to win on different tracks. The switch in venue today may be a wake up call. A repeat of that latest performance on Jan 15th where she garnered a speed fig of 99 looks high enough to triumph in this affair.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 MISSZIPPITYSLEWDA (ML=5/1),

MISSZIPPITYSLEWDA - This animal hasn't been in the mix in either of her last couple of efforts.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Putting our cash on #2 MAKE THE MOMENT to win. Have to have odds of at least 6/1 or better though
EXACTA WAGERS:	Pass
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [2,6,7] Total Cost: $6

Aqueduct - Race #9 - Post: 5:18pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $23,000 Class Rating: 60

Rating:

#9 HIDDENITE (ML=4/1)
#2 DELIGHTFUL ERIN (ML=5/1)

HIDDENITE - This jock and trainer have a favorable return on investment when they combine forces. Ortiz comes to saddle up after getting to know the filly in the last contest. Entered last at Aqueduct in a race with a class rating of 67. Dropping significantly in class rating this time around puts her in a solid position in this race. DELIGHTFUL ERIN - Jara comes to ride after getting to know the filly in the last contest.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 FERZETTI (ML=2/1), #12 ALICE AND TRIXIE (ML=3/1),

FERZETTI - No success for this entrant in a sprint contest over the last couple of months tells me that this filly is in a thorny spot The speed fig in the last race doesn't fit very well in this affair when I look at the class rating of today's event. Mark this entrant as a possibly overvalued equine. ALICE AND TRIXIE - Difficult to play any entrant in a sprint race at 3/1 when she hasn't shown any successful efforts in sprints in the last two months. This racer hasn't shown much effort in the last two affairs.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#9 HIDDENITE is going to be the play if we are getting 7/5 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,9]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

Today's Money in the Vault Horse is the horse deemed by The Turf Club Analysts to be today's most likely winner. Today's Live Longshot is the horse most likely to make an impact at big odds. On rare occasions the same horse can qualify for both distinctions. Races are rated from one to four gold coins. Four coin races are the races to wager the most money on, while one coin races should be skipped altogether or have a smaller amount wagered on them. For an extensive guide to The Turf Club Analysts reports, go to The Turf Club Analysts.