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RUNNING STYLES AND RACE TYPES
The FAST Method of Pace Analysis
By Craig Walker - TrackMaster, An Equibase Company
[EDITOR'S NOTE: The following article is written for the advanced player. Some of the terminology may be beyond the scope of the novice-level handicapper. Our series of articles addresses the spectrum of racing fans from the new-comer to the seasonsed veteran. This article is targeted toward the latter.]
Here is a simple method using the information found in TrackMaster Plus to come up with a quick, yet effective routine for pace analysis of a race. Each horse is given a "FAST" style designation showing its running style. These designations can then be used to analyze the pace of the race. The information used in this method is taken from the Pace - All category in the Pace - Style section of TrackMaster Plus, and the Pace Sprint or Pace Route category of the Pace - Figures section.
The Pace Style format analyzes a horse’s usual running position at three stages of the race: Early, Middle, and Finish.This is based on average running position adjusted for field size and distance. TrackMaster adds adjustments for the field size and change from one distance to another.For example, a horse running third in a twelve-horse field is given more front-running credit than a horse running third in a five-horse field. Furthermore, a sprinter who has been running third at the early call will be given more front-running credit than a router running third.
The Pace Figures calculation shows how fast a horse has been running early in the race, mid race, and the finish of the race. Based on a horse’s actual time and other conditions, such as track condition, these figures allow you to compare a horse’s average speed figure at different stages of the race to other horses in today’s race.
Basics of the FAST Method
There are four basic pace styles, which will be assigned under the FAST Method: F for a Front-runner, A for an Alternator, S for a Stalker, and T for a Trailer. An X is also used to designate a horse that isn’t a contender using this method or doesn’t have pace data to analyze.
The Front-runner designation denotes a horse, which is on or near the lead in most every race in its past performances. An Alternator is a horse that has no overall particular style, or a horse that shouldn’t have much impact on today’s race. A Stalker normally sits behind the leaders, just a few lengths off the pace, and a Trailer sits near the back of the pack and makes a late charging run down the stretch.
This method will assign an F, A, S or T to each horse with early call positions in its past performances. A horse with an A designation will also have a second letter designation of F, S, T or X to denote the alternator’s most recent style. The AX designation signifies a horse, which according to our method is not a contender in today’s race. Horses that have no past performances to rate will receive an XX designation.
Here are the rules for assigning the FAST designations:
First, determine a horse’s early speed ranking by sorting the Early Pace Figures of the horses in the field from highest to lowest. (Use the appropriate category, either Pace Sprint or Pace Route, depending on the distance of today’s race.) Write down the ranking of each horse.
Next, use the data in the Early position in the Pace - All / Pace - Style section to determine a horse’s running style and write down each horse’s FAST style designation next to its ranking using this method:
If a horse is a first time starter or has a blank and has no races with first call running positions in its past performances, then assign XX (no rating).
If early position < =2.5 then assign an F.
If (early position >2.5 and < =3.5) and (early position < finish position) then assign an F.
If (early position > 3.5 and < = 4.9) and (early position < finish position) then use the Check Last Three Races routine (found below) and assign AF, AS, AT or AX accordingly.
If (early position > 2.5 and < = 4.9) and (early position > = finish position) then assign an S.
If (early position > = 5.0) and (early position - finish position > = 2) then assign a T.
If (early position > = 5.0) and (early position - finish position < = 2) then use the Check Last Three Races routine and assign AS, AT, or AX.
If a horse has a blank for early position but does have first call running positions then use the Check Last Three Races routine and assign AF, AS, AT or AX.
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Check Last Three Races Routine
If the horse doesn't rank in the top half of the field in Finish Pace Figure, and neither of its last two races final speed figures > = today's class rating - 3 then assign an AX, otherwise:
Check the last three races at today's distance category (sprint or route) and on today's surface category (dirt or turf):If the horse is within two lengths of the lead at the first call in two of the three races then assign AF (if early position is > = 5.0 assign AS), else if the horse is within five lengths of the lead at the first call in two of the three races then assign AS, else assign AT.
If there are only two races at today's distance category (sprint or route) and on today's surface category (dirt or turf):If the horse is within two lengths of the lead at the first call in one of the two races then assign AF (if early position is > = 5.0 assign AS) else,if horse is within five lengths of the lead at the first call in one of the two races then assign AS, else assign AT.
If there is only one race at today's distance category (sprint or route) and on today's surface category (dirt or turf): If the horse is within two lengths of the lead at the first call of the race then assign AF (if early position is > = 5.0 assign AS) else, ifthe horse is within five lengths of the lead at the first call of the race then assign AS, else assign AT.
If there are no races to rate then apply the same rules but with races in the same distance category but the opposite surface category. If there are still no races to rate, then apply the same rules but with races in the opposite distance category but the same surface category. Lastly, if there are still no races to rate then apply the same rules but with races in the opposite distance category and the opposite surface category.
Example: Hollywood Park 05/01/02 Race 3
To review the method here is a sample race, the third race at Hollywood Park on May 1, 2002. The race is six furlongs on the dirt with a class rating of 88. Here are the Pace Style and Pace Figures for the race:
 In Post Position Order |  Sorted by Early Pace Figure |
Here are the designations using the FAST method:
FAST Style Designation: Flying Denouement - F
Rule: If early position < = 2.5 then assign an F.
Math: (2.0 < = 2.5)
FAST Style Designation: Mr. Reed - F
Rule: If (early position > 2.5 and < =3.5) and (early position < finish position) then assign an F.
Math: (3.4 < = 3.5) and (3.4 < 4)
FAST Style Designation: Jack's Ole - T
Rule: If (early position > = 5.0) and (early position - finish position > =2) then assign a T.
Math: (6.2 > = 5.0) and (6.2 - 3.7 > = 2)
FAST Style Designation: Scoop Of Ice - AS
Rule: If (early position > = 5.0) and (early position - finish position < =2) then use the Check Last Three Races routine and assign AS, AT or AX.
Math: (5.0 > = 5.0) and (5.0 - 3.9 < = 2)
Using the Check Last Three Races routine:
Scoop Of Ice ranks in the top half of the field in Finish Pace Figure (ranked first).
In two of its last three sprints, Scoop Of Ice was within five lengths of the lead, thus an AS designation.
FAST Style Designation: Codger - AT
Rule: If (early position > = 5.0) and (early position - finish position < =2) then use the Check Last Three Races routine and assign AS, AT or AX.
Math: (6.7 > = 5.0) and (6.7 - 5.9 < = 2)
Using the Check Last Three Races routine:
Codger ranks in the top half of the field in Finish Pace Figure (ranked fifth in a field of nine).
In all of its last three sprints, Codger was more than five lengths back of the lead, thus an AT designation.
Beanybaggybaby, Dr. Firster, and Gleeful Jig received an AX designation since they didn't rank in the top half of the field in Finish Pace Figure (within the top five in a nine horse field) and none of them had a final speed figure in either of their last two races within three points of today's class rating (88 - 3= 85). Dream Journey doesn't have any ratings for style or figures since it hasn't raced within the last 18 months. It also receives an AX designation.
The running lines and speed ratings for the Alternators are shown below.
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Here are the FAST style designations of the field ranked by Early Pace Figure:
Horse Name | Rank | Style |
Mr. Reed | 1 |
F |
Scoop Of Ice |
2 |
AS |
Flying Denoument |
3 |
F |
Beanybaggybaby |
4 |
AX |
Jack's Ole |
5 |
T |
Dr. Fister |
6 |
AX |
Codger |
7 |
AT |
Gleeful Jig |
8 |
AX |
Dream Journey |
9 |
AX |
In this race, Flying Denoument scratched. Dream Journey and Mr. Reed were in front at the first call.
Dream Journey quickly dropped back with Scoop Of Ice taking over the lead at the second call battling with Mr. Reed. Scoop Of Ice cleared from Mr. Reed at the 1/8 pole and held off a fast closing Jack' Ole for the victory.
Analyzing the Information
Here are some general guidelines for interpreting the FAST Method data. In general, a front-runner that isn’t ranked in the top three in Early Pace Figures faces a big disadvantage. It will have to use too much energy keeping up with the other front-runners; or, the stalkers and trailers with higher Early Pace Figures will be able to sit within striking distance and pass this horse easily. A stalker with an Early Pace Figure that ranks in the lower half of the field is also generally a poor bet. It can’t get the position it needs to be effective. A trailer should be judged upon its Finish Pace Figure and final speed ratings.
Below are general race types based on the FAST style designations of the runners in a race, which highlight the types of runners that should have an advantage. The Pace Figures should also be analyzed in conjunction with the FAST style designations. If you are keeping notes on any running style bias on the tracks you play, this method will aid in identifying the horses that will be helped or hindered by the bias. Also in my handicapping routine, once I’ve analyzed the pace, I use the method described in the article for TrackMaster Tips in May 2001 to get another rating for the horses I’ve deemed contenders.
Race Types:
Dominant Front-runner: A race in which a horse with a FAST style designation of F or AF has the highest Early Pace Figure and the highest Finish Pace Figure. This type of horse is very tough to beat. It should be in front or control the lead, where it can stay out of trouble, and it has a strong final speed rating also. A dominant front-runner is usually one of the best bets at the track.
Dominant Stalker: A race in which a horse with a FAST style designation of S or AS has the highest Early Pace Figure and the highest Finish Pace Figure. This type of horse is very tough to beat. It should be near the lead or be able to sit very comfortably off the early pace. This type of horse can make a strong middle move when needed and continue strongly down the stretch. A dominant stalker is good horse to wager upon.
Dominant Trailer: A race in which a horse with a FAST style designation of T or AT has the highest Early Pace Figure and the highest Finish Pace Figure. This type of horse doesn’t show up very often since it is unusual for a trailer to have the highest Early Pace Figure. Normally, a dominant trailer occurs if a horse is dropping significantly in class or the race is devoid of early speed. This kind of horse can bide its time in the early going and then use its energy to make a strong closing rush to the finish line.
Lone Front-runner: A race in which only one horse in the race has an F or AF Fast style designation. The lone front-runner is a common term heard every day at the track and has traditionally been a very good bet. Horses that would normally falter down the stretch get brave when able to run on the front end without any type of pressure. Strong front-runners are always good bets when there are no other front-runners in the race.
Lone Stalker: A race in which only one horse in the race has an S or AS Fast style designation and there are two or three F or AF horses in the race. The lone stalker will usually get a perfect trip in the "garden spot", not battling on the front end and clear of the trailers. If the final speed ratings of this type of horse are competitive versus the rest of the field, it will normally be in the thick of things at the finish.
Lone Trailer: A race in which only one horse in the race has a T or AT Fast style designation and there are two or three F or AF horses in the race. The lone trailer is a good bet when it has strong final speed ratings and there are front-runners and stalkers which will battle each other in the early and middle stages of the race.
Fast-Paced Race: Any race in which at least four of the horses have an F or AF FAST style designation. The stalkers and the trailers benefit greatly when there are a lot of front-runners in the race since the pace will be "honest." It takes a very strong front-runner to be able to win a fast-paced race.
Paceless Race: Any race in which no horse has an F or AF designation. When there are no front-runners in a race, it can be hard to envision how the race will unfold. Sometimes the horses with the best Early Pace Figures will benefit, other times it is better to use the best final speed ratings. These are tough races to decipher and occur most often in turf route races.
Basic Race: This is your generic everyday race. There are normally two or three front-runners, some stalkers, and a few trailers. Using your normal run-of-the-mill handicapping procedures to analyze the race is the best course of action in these heats.
The FAST Method of pace analysis takes a little bit of time to get used to at first. But the method becomes quite easy with routine use.
Any questions or comments ? Send your email to craig@trackmaster.com